Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Here are the average temperatures. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. **10% level of significance. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. 2014). For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. As already explained. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. 2009). Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). 3. 1.1. Previous Topic. **10% level of significant. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. 2013). Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. 2015). Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. And having new and higher-bred animals in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, no! 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